係金ㄟ！你也可以成為「GOLD MEMBER」

 

As a rule, money flows where it’s treated best. If interest rates are high, then gold performs poorly relative to money. If interest rates are low, money flows toward gold.When interest rates are zero, gold becomes a no-brainer.

 

    喜歡美元嗎? Federal Reserve 印給你，但是只有上帝可以決定給世界多少的石油和黃金。黃金價格近期的確還會上漲，如果此時買 入，在短期內會感受到黃金增值帶來的享受。但是，從長期如 10 年、 20 年的時間看，在歷史高位買入的黃金風險很大。其實黃金是一個寂寞的投資品種，在過去 30 年甚至 50 年中的表現平平，而且曾經一度跌破了生產成本價。 1987 年中國黃金開放時黃金價格為每克 60 元， 現在是每克 230 元左右，其收益率比人民幣的 5 年定期存款低很多。

    近幾年金價大漲原因，投機因素佔首位。首先，多年來黃金的供給和需求並沒發生實質性 變化，退回金本位制基本是天方夜譚。近幾年尤其是近 2 、 3 年來金價大漲跟全球資產泡沫有關，金融危機 、美元的疲軟只是給了黃金炒作的理由。其次，在中國也不需要用黃金抵禦通貨膨脹。中國 過去 30 年的通貨膨脹率是 5% ，處於非常低的水準。

    巴菲特曾說過，他寧願擁有一小塊農田也不願擁有黃金。黃金投資其實只需盯住兩點：一是國際油價，二是國際局勢。2006年末金價大跌很大程度上是受到國際油價下跌影響。 The macro environment for gold is still supportive based on negative real interest rates.回顧全世界負利率的歷史，都和油價脫不了關係，72年的石油禁運危機、79年的兩伊戰爭、90年的波灣戰爭，還現在的油價大漲，以美國而言，72年和現在步入負利率，其餘兩次也是實質零利率。翻開台幣1年期的定存利率的歷史，1980年高達12.5%，到1990年的時候仍然還有9.5%，2000年的時候只剩下5%。2004年以來，定存利率已經跌破2%，以世界各國金融的歷史變化來看，定存利率已經很難再超過2%了。

 

    Gold pays no interest. It’s just a lump of yellow metal. If the bank is paying you 7% interest on your cash, chances are you’d rather have your money in the bank. It makes sense in this case, thanks to compound interest—in 10 years you’d have doubled your money. Hold gold for 10 years and you still have the same lump of yellow metal.
 
    Now consider this… Imagine the bank was paying zero percent interest… then which is more attractive, paper dollars or gold? In this case, a rational investor would choose gold. Gold is beautiful, rare, and easy to exchange, no matter where you are in the world. Paper money, on the other hand, is just paper. Governments can print as much of it as they like.

 

黃金存摺

 

    台灣銀行、兆豐商銀、花旗銀行的黃金存摺不論是小額投資人或大額投資人均可投資，台銀與兆豐銀銷售以克為單位，不到台幣1000元，就可以買到1克黃金存摺，花旗銀行則以盎司為單為，一次必須買足10盎司以上，且以美元為交割款。黃金存摺可以提領實金，也可為黃金無實體交易；目前100公克、1台兩、5台兩、250公克、500公克、1公斤的gold bars可提領出來，但是physical gold一經提領，則不可再回售。Vietnam War時南越民眾用當地貨幣(piaster)交換金箔的教訓告訴’我們，收藏physical gold時體積愈小的愈好. If you are forced to transact in gold, 在災難發生時你可不想為了填飽肚子，desperately拿一個大金塊去換一顆potato.

 

黃金密碼

古埃及人把黃金視為神明的皮膚，圖為Tuthankhamun

 

    Gold prices rose modestly on the 24 April after China said it had become the world’s fifth largest holder of bullion after secretly increasing its reserves by 75 per cent to 1,054 tonnes since 2003. 為何大宗商品在未來會是表現最好的市場：從供應方來說，目前Alaska、Mexico等都在減產，英國、馬來西亞由出口國變成了進口國，印尼原是OPEC成員，現在變成了石油進口國，退出OPEC。而從需求方來看，隨著亞洲經濟的蓬勃發展，對石油的需求量一直在持續上升，目前中國已成為世界第2大石油進口國，其消費石油量占世界的十分之一，印度占世界的二十分之一，需求在爆炸式增長，供給卻未有增加。最具有代表性的例子就是沙特最大的石油公司，從1978年到1988年10年間，公司當時對外宣布是每年可產2,400多億桶石油。從1988年開始，則宣布每年產石油2,600億桶，該數字在後來很多年裡從未發生改變。也就意味着這麼多年來，並未有新的油田被發現。也同時意味着石油供需已出現嚴重不平衡。如果中東地區局勢趨於緊張，油價會飆升，即便中東局勢緩和，油價會下跌1-2個月，甚至半年。但是長遠看來，油價會在未來的5-15年持續居高，並進一步上升。因為自1969年以來，全球就没有發現新的大規模的原油儲備。Then, of course, there is the continuing puzzle over why the U.S. invaded Iraq. There were doubtless many reasons why. But Alan Greenspan, the recently retired head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, lamented in his memoirs that “it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil”.

    Whether or not Mr. Greenspan is right about Iraq, it is certainly true that America’s leaders worry a great deal about the availability and price of oil. You cannot blame them. The two oil shocks of the 1970s drove the economic “stagflation” that plagued Europe and America during that decade. By contrast, the long booms during the Reagan and Clinton years were underpinned by low oil prices. The fall in the oil price in the 1980s did a lot to bankrupt the Soviet Union. The rise in the oil price over the past decade has led to a richer and more assertive Russia.

    亞洲人一向鍾愛黃金，中國和印度分別為全球第1和第2大的黃金消費國，但印度央行卻只有4.4%的黃金儲備；2009年中國國家外匯管理局對外宣佈黃金儲量已達1,054噸，較2003年增長75.6%，躍居世界第5，中國黃金儲備要達到國際平均水平，需要6,000噸黃金。現在世界各國公佈的官方黃金儲備總量為3 萬2700噸，約等於目前全世界黃金年產量的13倍。其中官方黃金儲備1,000噸以上的國家和組織有：美國、德國、法國、義大利、瑞士及國際貨幣基金組織等。美國的黃金儲備最多，為8,100多噸，占世界官方黃金儲備總量的24.9%。

 

    中國人民銀行副行長胡曉煉說，本世紀以來，中國大陸調整過兩次黃金儲備，即2001年和2003年，分別從394噸調整到500噸和600噸。自2003年以來，逐步透過雜金提純及市場交易等方式，又增加454噸。到了2009年，黃金儲備最終達到1,054噸。以13億人口計算，平均每人約0.81克，人均占比還非常低。且黃金儲備在整個儲備資產中占比還不到2%，按照當前的黃金價格計算，中國的黃金儲備約合300億美元，占外匯儲備的比例僅1.6%左右。而發達國家黃金儲備在外匯儲備中的占比普遍高達40%至60%。根據世界黃金協會今年3 月份整理的全球官方黃金儲備數據顯示，黃金儲備規模排在中國之前的美國、德國、法國和義大利等的黃金儲備占比分別為78.9%、71.5%、72.6%和66.5%；國際平均水平為 10%。中國黃金儲備占比如果要達到日本的水平，需要1,400噸黃金；要達到俄羅斯、印度的水平，需要2,500噸黃金；要達到國際平均水平，需要6,000噸黃金。。My advice: Acquire as much of gold as you are comfortable holding and just hold on. Don’t try to trade your way into greater profits; this nearly always results in you missing out on big moves.

 

    Whatever the percentage of your total holdings in this area, make sure it is small enough so you won’t get nervous and be tempted to sell. But make sure it is large enough so a bull market will clearly make a difference in your financial life. There is no one percentage that works for everyone. You have to look at yourself to decide whether the correct percent is closer to 15% or 50%.

 

As our chart shows, 黃金和美元具有蹺蹺板效應，如果美元有長期走貶的趨勢，加上國際油價走高帶動inflation，都會使得美元資產持有者四處尋找規避美元貶值的工具

 

    Readers have had a lot to say about our recommendation to buy gold… Most of it along the lines of, "Nice job, smartass… I bought gold, and now I’m down a hundred bucks an ounce!" Yes… Anyone who has bought gold in the past few months has seen the value of their holdings decline. But our advice is to sit back and consider two "big pictures."

 

    One big picture is fundamental: We don’t see physical gold as a trading vehicle. We see it as the ultimate form of wealth insurance. Gold soars when everything slumps… so it’s a great diversifier. We buy hold and hope we never have to use it or sell it. The other big picture is the long uptrend in gold, presented above. This uptrend began in 2001. Over the next five years, gold trotted from $250 to $450. In 2005, gold exploded. It doubled in just over two years to reach $1,000 an ounce. So… are we surprised to see a "shakeout" after such a big gain? No way. No asset goes to the moon without a few big declines to scare everyone. And as you can see, gold could fall even farther and still be in "bull mode."

Good investing,